• Predrag Ljubotina
  • Andrej Raspor



Slovenia, Ukraine crisis, COVID-19, Tourism demand, Crisis management, Delphi method, Forecasting scenarios.


The profound impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and the Ukraine crisis 2022 on
tourism has rendered forecasts of tourism demand obsolete. Accordingly, scholars
have begun to look for the best methods to predict the recovery of tourism. In
this study, econometric and judgmental methods were combined in order to to
forecast the possible ways to tourism recovery in Slovenia. The goals of this paper
are to show and assess the current offerings and potential for the development
of tourism in Slovenia, and to point out the advantages and challenges in the
development of tourism in this type of destination. Statistical methods were
used for benchmark analysis, while Box and Jenkins approach and ARIMA
modeling were used for forecasting Slovenian tourism until 2030. The datasets
are analyzed using Tableau 2022.1. Our findings show that Slovenian tourism
will be slower on the uptake and is not likely to fully recover until 2026, due to
COVID-19 related uncertainty. A steep jump in daily COVID-19 infections in
China and the Ukraine crisis which is affecting political and economic stability
in the world is also slowing down the speed of recovery. In 2019, Chinese,
Russian and Ukrainian tourists generated 5% of all tourist arrivals and overnight
stays. In particular Russian tourists were well-known for their high consumer
expenditure and thus desirable to the destination places. To mitigate the drop in
tourist arrivals, Slovenia should do two things, namely concentrate on traditional
markets, i.e. Austria, Italy, and Germany, which altogether represent 1/3 of all
tourist arrivals and overnight stays, and secondly, it should target new markets,
bringing new, innovative products, services, and experiences.


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