MODELING THE TOURISM MARKET BEHAVIOR BASED ON DISCRETE EQUILIBRIUM MODELS “SUPPLY – PRICE – DEMAND”

Abstract

The work is devoted to the modeling of the behavior of the tourism
market in the conditions of a supply random lag, distributed according
to normal and uniform distribution laws. The behavior of dependenc-
es on the tourist market of supply and demand on the price is consid-
ered. The modeling of the behavior of the tourism market was carried
out using a market dynamic model in the plane of variables “sup-
ply – price – demand” taking into account the interests of different
groups of consumers, primarily from the point of view of pricing. The
delay between changes in supply and demand volumes is taken into
account using a Cobweb model. To test this method, information was
collected on family expenses when traveling abroad (outbound tour-
ism, tourist vacations lasting 7-15 days) by surveying the employees
of 38 travel organizations as of 2021. Three segments of the tourism
market are identified: low ($2000 − 4000), medium ($4000 − 12000),
and VIP-segment ($12,000 − 20,000). The analysis of the modeling
results showed that the behavior of tourists of different segments can
significantly influence the market dynamics. The use of a Cobweb
model allowed for determining the level of stability of tourist be-
havior and assessing the possibility of consumer migration from one
segment to another. Sensitivity to price changes and response to new
offers from different segments can be different, which is important
for determining pricing strategies, marketing, and the development of
new tourism products.