MODELLING THE INFLUENCE OF FACTORS ON THE FORMATION OF LOCAL BUDGET INCOME

Vasyl  Prots; Karlin  Mykola; Nataliia  Prots; Olena  Stashchuk

doi:10.2478/eoik-2024-0044

Authors

Vasyl Prots Lesya Ukrainka Volyn National University, Lutsk, Ukraine
Karlin Mykola Lesya Ukrainka Volyn National University, Lutsk, Ukraine
Nataliia Prots Lesya Ukrainka Volyn National University, Lutsk, Ukraine
Olena Stashchuk Lesya Ukrainka Volyn National University, Lutsk, Ukraine

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.2478/eoik-2024-0044

Keywords:

modeling, local budgets, revenues and expenditures of local budgets, instability, tax revenues, non-tax revenues, territorial communities, local self-government authorities

Abstract

One of the important tasks of the functioning of the financial system and democratic society is the effective management of budgetary resources of local self-government bodies. Which, in turn, depends on the amount of budget resources available to local authorities. The main sources of the formation of financial resources are tax and nontax revenues, income from capital transactions and official transfers. In this article, an objective quantitative analysis of the influence of factors on the formation of local budget revenues is carried out using economic and mathematical modeling on the example of local budgets of the Volyn region. To build a model of dependence the volume of local budget revenues and the constituents of revenue receipts, the method of principal components was used, which made it possible to replace correlated factors with uncorrelated components. Based on the formed model, it is proposed to forecast income indicators for future periods. Modeling positive and negative scenarios for the formation of the community’s budgetary resources will enable for local self-government bodies to develop, accordingly, plans for the development of the territory, to optimize the sources of income and directions for the use of budgetary resources, and also to implement measures to smooth out negative impacts.

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