MOROCCO’S ECONOMIC PROSPECTS: A DYNAMIC ARDL SIMULATION ON GLOBAL VALUE CHAIN INTEGRATION
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.2478/eoik-2025-0009Keywords:
Global value chains, economic development, dynamic ARDL simulation, International trade, MoroccoAbstract
This paper examines how Morocco’s integration into global value
chains (GVCs) impacts its economic development, addressing a criti-
cal gap in the literature on developing economies. While GVCs have
transformed international trade over the past two decades and created
new industrialisation opportunities, their developmental impact var-
ies significantly across countries. Building on previous research, our
study fills a significant gap by conducting a comprehensive analy-
sis of Morocco’s GVC participation using a dynamic autoregressive
distributed lag (ARDL) simulation methodology from 1990 to 2018,
examining the relationship between various GVC integration mea-
sures and GDP per capita. The empirical analysis reveals three key
findings : backward linkages through foreign value added in exports
drive long-term economic development ; domestic value added in ex-
ports generates significant positive long-run growth effects ; and for-
ward linkages through indirect value added in exports produce both
short-run and long-run economic benefits. These results demonstrate
that Morocco’s strategic GVC integration has been fundamental to its
economic development. In light of these findings, policy implications
are drawn to enhance Morocco’s global competitiveness and optimize
development benefits through targeted GVC participation strategies.
The research emphasizes how balanced integration across different
value chain linkages promotes sustainable economic growth in devel-
oping countries.
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